For the first time in living memory there are three political parities polling within single digits of each other. As I argued last week at the Berlin Campaign Conference, I believe the Conservatives can win the next General Election under Kemi Badenoch’s leadership.
My article in Conservative Home, published today, builds on the arguments I made in Berlin. In this article I argue that although the scale of the 2024 defeat means the road back is genuinely steep, the building blocks of a real Conservative recovery are now falling into place. The electoral mathematics of 2029 are far more fluid than the received wisdom suggests and I set out reasons for cautious optimism: a leader whose personal ratings are climbing steadily, a party machine that has been rebuilt from first principles, a policy offer that is sharpening into something distinctive, and two rival coalitions, Labour’s and Reform’s, that look considerably shakier up close than they do in the polls.
Taken together, I argue these conditions mean 2029 is not a hope but a genuinely winnable prospect, if the Party has the discipline to see it through.
